Ezra Vogel (1930-2020) (傅高义)
https://fairbank.fas.harvard.edu/person/ezra-vogel/
Contents
Ezra F. Vogel
Former Henry Ford II Professor of the Social Sciences, Emeritus; former Director of the Fairbank Center 1973-1975, 1995-1999.
午 yy 出外會餐
午後 陳祖林夫婦來訪
李冠儒 小提琴獨奏會
週五音樂會(五) 地點：懷恩堂 大堂 洽詢電話： 2362-5321
昨晚與Willey談鞋子發黴之case
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我的adsense 說12月23日給支票
現在還沒收到 如何連絡他們
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我記得要隔幾個禮拜才會收到 再等一會看看
今天CL跟我要你的電話 說明天要去看你
我最近買了一本 Amazon 的 e-reader Kindle Touch
好極了
Best rgds
David Hsu
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to Hsu
終於連絡到陳祖林 CL 哈哈
這些新科技是你們這一代的呢
再談
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昨哥德談話錄 7點起來再睡到10.5 看陳水扁頭七看岳母之轉播
《胡適留學日記》
1914年元月四日
有「吾國女子所處地位高於西方女子」一文。
五日「灯迷三則」
當天，美國福特汽車公司宣布作業員的時薪 幾元。
On Jan. 5, 1914, Henry Ford, head of the Ford Motor Company, introduced a minimum wage scale of $5 per day.
如果以一美元40台幣算，該公司工人月薪約6000台幣， 而在1960年，胡適的中研院院長總月薪約2000元台幣。
倫明/陳垣/胡適
昨晚與Willey談協發黴之case
問DAVID
我記得要隔幾個禮拜才會收到 再等一會看看0933957598 --終於連絡到他 哈哈今天CL跟我要你的電話 說明天要去看你我最近買了一本 Amazon 的 e-reader Kindle Touch好極了
這些新科技是你們這一代的呢
再談
昨哥德談話錄 7點起來再睡到10.5 看陳水扁頭七看岳母之轉播
“從日本第一Japan As Number One 到中國第一”的旁觀
“從日本第一到中國第一”的旁觀
1980年代初 傅高義的Japan as number one 登場 轟動一時
然而 真正的實力是什麼呢
Economics focus
How to get a date
The year when the Chinese economy will truly eclipse America’s is in sight
Dec 31st 2011 | from the print edition
IN THE spring of 2011 the Pew Global Attitudes Survey asked thousands of people worldwide which country they thought was the leading economic power. Half of the Chinese polled reckoned that America remains number one, twice as many as said “China”. Americans are no longer sure: 43% of US respondents answered “China”; only 38% thought America was still the top dog. The answer depends on which measure you pick. An analysis of 21 different indicators chosen by The Economist (see the full set) finds that China has already overtaken America on over half of them and will be top on virtually all of them within a decade.
Economic power is best gauged by looking at absolute size rather than per-person measures. On a few indicators, such as steel consumption, ownership of mobile phones and beer-guzzling (a crucial test of economic superiority), the milestone was reached as long as a decade ago. Several more have been passed since. In 2011 China exported about 30% more than the United States and spent some 40% more on fixed capital investment. China is the world’s biggest manufacturer, and partly as a result it burns around 10% more energy and emits almost 40% more greenhouse gases than America (although its emissions per person are only one-third as big). The Chinese also buy more new cars each year than anybody else.
The chart shows our predictions for when China will overtake America on several other measures. Official figures show that China’s consumer spending is currently only one-fifth of that in America (although that may be understated because of China’s poor statistical coverage of services). Based on relative growth rates over the past five years it will remain smaller until 2023. Retail sales are catching up much faster, and could exceed America’s by 2014. In that same year China also looks set to become the world’s biggest importer—a huge turnaround from 2000, when America’s imports were six times those of China.
Find even more indicators and adjust the figures to make your own predictions using our interactive chartWhat about GDP, the most widely used measure of economic power? The IMF predicts that China’s GDP will surpass America’s in 2016 if measured on a purchasing-power parity (PPP) basis, which adjusts for the fact that prices are lower in poorer countries. But America will only really be eclipsed when China’s GDP outstrips it in dollar terms, converted at market-exchange rates.
In 2011 America’s GDP was roughly twice as big as China’s, down from eight times bigger in 2000. To predict how quickly that gap might be closed, The Economist has updated its interactive online chart (also here) which allows you to plug in your own assumptions about real GDP growth in China and America, inflation rates and the yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar. Our best guess is that annual real GDP growth over the next decade averages 7.75% in China (down from 10.5% over the past decade) and 2.5% in America; that inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) averages 4% and 1.5% respectively; and that the yuan appreciates by 3% a year. If so, then China will overtake America in 2018. That is a year earlier than our prediction in December 2010 because China’s GDP in dollar terms increased by more than expected in 2011.
Second place is for winners
Even if China became the world’s biggest economy by 2018, Americans would remain much richer, with a GDP per head four times that in China. But Rupert Hoogewerf, the founder of the annual Hurun Report on China’s richest citizens, reckons that it may already have more billionaires. His latest survey identified 270 dollar billionaires but the true total, he says, is probably double that because many Chinese are secretive about their wealth. According to the Forbes rich list, America has 400 billionaires or so.
America still tops a few league tables by a wide margin. Its stockmarket capitalisation is four times bigger than China’s and it has more than twice as many firms in the Fortune global 500, which lists the world’s biggest companies by revenue. Last but not least, America spends five times as much on defence as China does, and even though China’s defence budget is expanding faster, on recent growth rates America will remain top gun until 2025.
Being the biggest economy in the world does offer advantages. It helps to ensure military superiority and gives a country more say in fixing international rules. Historically, the biggest economy has become the issuer of the main reserve currency, which is why America has also been able to borrow more cheaply than it otherwise would. But it would be a mistake for American leaders to try to block China’s rise. China’s rapid growth benefits the whole global economy. It is better to be number two in a fast-growing world than top dog in a stagnant one.
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