My great concern is that China may not respond nearly as well. How cohesive will China be in the face of economic trouble? Will it try to prop up its economy with an export surge that will run headlong into Western efforts to promote green technologies? Scariest of all, will it try to distract from domestic difficulties by engaging in military adventurism?
So let’s not gloat about China’s economic stumble, which may become everyone’s problem.
我非常擔心的是，中國可能不會做出同樣的反應。 面對經濟困難，中國的凝聚力有多大？ 它是否會試圖透過出口激增來支撐其經濟，而這將直接影響西方推廣綠色技術的努力？ 最可怕的是，它會試圖透過軍事冒險主義來轉移人們對國內困難的注意力嗎？
因此，我們不要對中國經濟的衰退幸災樂禍，這可能會成為每個人的問題。
we’ve experienced immaculate disinflation, rapidly falling inflation at no visible cost.
美國經歷了完美的通貨緊縮，在沒有明顯成本的情況下迅速下降的通膨。
但在世界最大經濟體（或第二大經濟體——這取決於衡量標準），情況卻截然不同。 一些分析師預計，在取消為遏制疫情而採取的嚴厲的「零新冠」措施後，中國經濟將蓬勃發展。 相反，除了官方GDP（據說成長了5.2%）之外，中國幾乎所有經濟指標都表現不佳。
觀點
保羅‧克魯曼
中國經濟陷入嚴重困境
2024 年 1 月 18 日晚上 7:00 ET
幾年前還似乎即將稱霸世界的中國經濟為何陷入困境？
部分原因是領導不力。 中國國家主席習近平開始看起來像一個糟糕的經濟管理者，他的任意干預傾向——這是獨裁者經常做的事情——扼殺了私人積極性。
但即使習近平是一位比他更好的領導人，中國也會陷入麻煩。
長期以來，中國的經濟模式已經變得不可持續，這一點已經很明顯了。 正如斯圖爾特·帕特森指出的那樣，消費者支出佔 GDP 的比例非常低，這可能有多種原因。 其中包括金融抑制——向儲蓄支付低利息並向優惠借款人提供廉價貸款——壓低了家庭收入並將其轉移到政府控制的投資上，社會安全網薄弱導致家庭積累儲蓄以應對可能的緊急情況，以及更多的。
Why is China’s economy, which only a few years ago seemed headed for world domination, in trouble?
Part of the answer is bad leadership. President Xi Jinping is starting to look like a poor economic manager, whose propensity for arbitrary interventions — which is something autocrats tend to do — has stifled private initiative.
But China would be in trouble even if Xi were a better leader than he is.
It has been clear for a long time that China’s economic model was becoming unsustainable. As Stewart Paterson notes, consumer spending is very low as a percentage of G.D.P., probably for multiple reasons. These include financial repression — paying low interest on savings and making cheap loans to favored borrowers — that holds down household income and diverts it to government-controlled investment, a weak social safety net that causes families to accumulate savings to deal with possible emergencies, and more.
PAUL KRUGMAN
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