NICHOLAS KRISTOF
What Worries Me About War With China After My Visit to Taiwan
There is a fine line between deterring China and provoking it. My take is that while we should do significantly more to help Taiwan boost defenses and deter aggression, we should do so quietly, without needlessly humiliating China. Sometimes Americans loudly embrace Taiwan in ways that inflame tensions at times when we should be hoping to lower them.
威懾中國和挑釁中國只有一線之隔。 我的看法是，雖然我們應該做更多的事情來幫助台灣加強防禦和遏制侵略，但我們應該悄悄地這樣做，而不是不必要地羞辱中國。 有時，美國人大聲擁抱台灣，但有時卻加劇了緊張局勢，而我們本應希望緩和緊張局勢。
Instead, we need to solidify the status quo. That means China doesn’t use military force against Taiwan, and Taiwan isn’t seen as slipping away forever into America’s orbit. Taiwanese officials, including President-elect Lai Ching-te, are prudent enough to say they will maintain that status quo — messy and unsatisfactory though it is — and Washington should as well.
相反，我們需要鞏固現狀。 這意味著中國不會對台灣使用武力，台灣也不會被視為永遠滑入美國的軌道。 包括當選總統賴清德在內的台灣官員非常謹慎地表示，他們將維持現狀——儘管現狀混亂且令人不滿意——華盛頓也應該如此。
But perhaps the single best way to discourage Xi Jinping from attacking Taiwan is to help Ukraine against Russia.但也許阻止習近平攻擊台灣的最佳方法是幫助烏克蘭對抗俄羅斯。
Xi has shown greater urgency about “recovering” Taiwan, and has linked this to his own legacy, while matching his talk with a military modernization that targets Taiwan and the United States.
“When I look at the military China is building, it is not a general-purpose military,” said Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall III. “It is designed around the goal of being able to take Taiwan and keep the U.S. out.”習近平對「光復」台灣表現出了更大的緊迫感，並將其與他自己的遺產聯繫起來，同時將他的演講與針對台灣和美國的軍事現代化相結合。
「當我觀察中國正在建設的軍隊時，它不是一支通用軍隊，」空軍部長弗蘭克·肯德爾三世說。 “它的設計目標是能夠佔領台灣並將美國排除在外。”
In any case, a tighter squeeze on Taiwan — including a blockade — seems a more likely scenario than a sudden invasion. 無論如何，對台灣實施更嚴厲的擠壓——包括封鎖——似乎比突然入侵更有可能發生。
This kind of gradual approach, a salami slicing of Taiwan’s autonomy, is how China neutered Hong Kong.這種循序漸進的做法，就像義大利香腸切片台灣的自治權一樣，就是中國壓製香港的方式。
NICHOLAS KRISTOF
感謝讀者迄今為止向我的 2023 年假期捐贈指南中經過審查的非營利組織捐贈了超過 630 萬美元，該指南僅剩幾天了。 這將使撒哈拉以南非洲的 10,000 多名女孩能夠上學，並幫助 5,000 名美國年輕人接受教育或職業培訓。 您可以在 1 月 31 日當天結束之前透過 KristofImpact.org 加入捐贈活動。
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最重要的是，拜登是一位非常有效的總統。
拜登完全擁有自己的心智——完全清醒，對細節有著出色的把握……順便說一句，他還有幽默感，我認為這很重要。
he is in full possession of his faculties — completely lucid and with excellent grasp of detail.....He also, by the way, has a sense of humor, which I think is important.
It’s a case of bureaucrats overstepping their bounds in a way that’s at best careless and at worst malicious.這是官僚越界的案例，往好了說是粗心，往壞了說是惡意。
是的，拜登確實老了，如果他連任並連任的話，他會更老。
Yes, it’s true that Biden is old, and will be even older if he wins re-election and serves out a second term.
ANALYSIS
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Donald Trump’s statement supporting a Russian attack against “delinquent” NATO allies takes attention away from questions about President Biden’s age.
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