2007年10月30日 星期二

1030 2007 周二

周二

說kevin的fmea迷思

整理書混戰一整天 隔壁無空箱 明目無人
後來幸虧高等教育20箱
ntu 注意到他們的餐廳其實遠遠不過夠
有人買領導手冊
晚上hans保險--汽車bumper全換
再整理建築藝術類
closer call
逆snobbery


A Sure Thing

Bowing to Market Pressure
Could Prolong Dilemma
For Fed's Policy Makers

By GREG IP

(The market's certainty that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter point creates a burden on the Fed to deliver.)

The market is convinced the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates tomorrow, but for the Fed itself, it is a closer call.—請問小讀者closer call是什麼意思

由這著名的片語說明call
似乎應將closer call 解釋為"進一步審查再判斷"
意下如何

too close to call Resulting in too narrow a margin to make a decision, as in That ball didn't miss by much but it was too close to call, or The election was too close to call, so they decided to have a runoff. This expression comes from sports, where call has signified "a judgment" since the mid-1600s. In the 1960s it began to be applied to pre-election polls and then to the outcome of elections.

a close/near thing UK (MAINLY US a close call)
something which almost happened:
The car just missed the child but it was a very close thing.




Why Rate Cut Isn't
A Sure Thing

Bowing to Market Pressure
Could Prolong Dilemma
For Fed's Policy Makers
By GREG IP

The market is convinced the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates tomorrow, but for the Fed itself, it is a closer call.

The behavior of financial markets implies near certainty by investors of a quarter-point cut in the Fed's key short-term interest rate. But for policy makers, the decision is between the quarter-point reduction and no cut at all. A half-point cut is unlikely to get serious consideration from Fed officials, though some in the market expect it.

Both courses of action have risks. Perhaps the biggest is that the market's certainty that rates will be cut creates a burden on the Fed to deliver. Ordinarily, meeting market expectations isn't a goal in itself for the Fed.

But the current environment is more fragile than usual, and thus the consequences of disappointing the market are potentially more damaging. Against that, the Fed will have to weigh the risk that a cut will stoke inflationary psychology.

The Fed can mitigate the risks on either front with its accompanying statement. No rate cut could be accompanied by a statement opening the door to a future cut. A cut could be accompanied by a statement damping expectations of more reductions.

"I would guess market expectations would be the deciding factor," said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, a research arm of ICAP, a money-market brokerage. Mr. Crandall doesn't expect a cut, citing the risk that doing so would prompt investors to expect another in December, putting the Fed in the same bind. On the other hand, he said if the Fed thinks it will cut eventually, market expectations may nudge it to do so now rather than later, he said.

On Sept. 18, the Fed cut its target for the federal funds rate, charged on overnight loans between banks, a larger-than-expected half a percentage point to 4.75%. Since then, market expectations of what the Fed would do at its two-day meeting that ends tomorrow have swung wildly.

Analysts' views moved in tandem. J.P. Morgan Chase originally called for a quarter-point cut, then revised that to no cut on Oct. 12 as stocks hit new highs and unemployment-insurance claims remained low. Then, "everything turned against us," said economist Michael Feroli. Housing data and financial markets weakened and in speeches Fed officials didn't counter rate-cut expectations. On Oct. 23, the firm again said the Fed would cut; 17 of 21 dealers surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires agree. Failure to deliver could cause credit markets to weaken and stocks to dive, Mr. Feroli warned: "I think it will be ugly."

As of yesterday, the implied probability of no change was 16%, according to options data analyzed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; the probability of a quarter-point cut was 72%, and of half-a-point cut, 10%.

The case for remaining on hold comes down to the economic forecast. While housing data has deteriorated further, there is little sign so far that it has spilled over to the broader economy. Fed officials don't appear to have significantly altered their forecast of a return to moderate growth next year. Helped by last month's rate cut, many market interest rates have come down. Stocks have recovered from their swoon two weeks ago. While inflation concerns have receded, they haven't disappeared, especially given the dollar's drop.

Some officials may argue that, at 4.75%, the federal-funds rate is still high relative to underlying growth and inflation. But the biggest argument for cutting rates will be market expectations. Fed officials didn't intend to nudge the market to expect a rate cut, so they will have to weigh the possibility that markets are signaling a more pessimistic view on growth and credit markets than the Fed sees.

The Fed can use other tools to influence reactions to its rate action. If it cuts, the accompanying statement could damp expectations for more by suggesting the risks to growth have receded. It could go the added step of saying the risk of weaker growth equals the risk of higher inflation. If it stands pat, the statement could keep a later cut on the table by stressing continued risks to growth or market stability. Fed officials are weighing issuing more forecasts, and could do so at this meeting, perhaps for release with the minutes three weeks later. A forecast would provide context to the Fed's decision.



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mollify hog

Focus on rankings hurts children's education

Quote from W. Edwards Deming:
Forces of Destruction: grades in school, merit system, incentive pay, business plans, quotas.

貴妃

安心

追風逐電

Maria Sharapova and Marketing Maria

手機短信在大學教育方面的妙用

Sgt. Pepper

Oxford Dictionary of National Biography

bumble. bumblebee, A ‘Bee’ for Effort

waxworks and Madame Tussauds

中國建築浪費或冠全球

蘭桂坊

藍海

Blue Ocean Strategy

From Netscape To Google: The Hottest Companies

苦戰,苦鬥

歷史與人物:美國10月30日

The Theatrical Katharine Hepburn, in Journals and Letters

the gamut, run the gamut, drawdown

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