Hello from London,
Does this sound like a party you’d want to attend? Xi Jinping is playing host, from today, to a gaggle of grandees at the northern Chinese seaside city of Tianjin. Around 20 foreign leaders are there. These include tyrants from Russia and North Korea, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, plus leaders from countries such as Iran, Pakistan and Vietnam. It’s a summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, one of those regional groupings yet to find a known purpose. The real show is Mr Xi’s own: his chance to display how rapidly China’s diplomatic clout is growing.
Here’s one thread. The presence in China of India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, is striking. Speaking on Sunday, the Chinese and Indian leaders seemed to signal a rapprochement between their countries. Even a few months ago, that would have been unthinkable. Relations, long poor, had grown especially bitter following a nasty border clash in 2020. Just as bad, China gives strong military help to India’s rival and neighbour, Pakistan. And yet here is Mr Modi in China for the first time in years.
He’s not there for the tasty seafood of Tianjin. Give credit, instead, to Donald Trump. The American’s cack-handed recent attempts to bully India, by slapping high tariffs on many of its goods exports among other blunders, have caused fury in Delhi. Decades of efforts by previous, smarter, American administrations, to nudge democratic India to be a closer partner, now risk being undone. Mr Modi has used the Tianjin shindig to signal how India has other options and can shun America. That’s a boost to China and a prime example of the damage Mr Trump is doing to America’s long-term interests.
A second thread concerns Russia’s leader. I see Mr Putin as ever more eager to keep on good terms with the more dominant Mr Xi. China’s steady support for Russia since it re-invaded Ukraine in 2022, providing military, diplomatic, economic and other aid, has been vital for Mr Putin. As Russia’s wartime economy grows ever more skewed, China’s sway only gets greater.
No doubt the Russian leader hopes that others in Tianjin—possibly including India, which has previously been cautious—will offer him more overt diplomatic help in isolating beleaguered Ukraine. Mr Putin looks confident. He is ignoring America’s talk of a peace deal in Ukraine, and continues to launch bloody attacks on Ukrainian civilians. So much for Mr Trump’s applause in Alaska. Mr Putin does so knowing China is happy for the war in Ukraine to drag on.
Third, this is a chance to get a better sense of how Mr Xi sees himself at home. In Tianjin, and later at a big parade in Beijing, those who study China’s opaque politics will see if any senior party, foreign-policy or military officials have been sidelined. Rumours abound. Is Mr Xi purging the corrupt, sidelining internal opponents, making it easier for his acolytes to rise—or all of the above? Our keen observers of Chinese politics will be watching closely.
Thank you for your own comments on the souring US-India relationship. Allison from Florida thinks America is “absolutely” losing India: the chance to be partners is “quickly slipping away”. V.Muthuswami, from Chennai, says Indians will remain “all-weather friends of ordinary American citizens”, while rejecting America’s “erratic” leader. Avinash Subramaniam calls himself “angry and insulted” and calls on India to reject any friendship with Mr Trump’s America. I note, Avinash, that that holds a door open for potential warming of ties later on. Many others of you wrote in a similar vein. For next week I’d like to hear what you think of Mr Xi’s place in the world. After the ceremonies, summit and parade of the coming week, do you conclude the Chinese leader is stronger than ever? Write to me at economisttoday@economist.com. |
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